AFTER starting with 17 candidates, the Republican field has narrowed to just three real contenders: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. At first glance, it may seem that all three have a decent shot at the nomination: according to RealClearPolitics, the three are averaging 35.6%, 19.8% and 17.4% in the national polls.
Punters, however, have a rather different view of the horse race. The latest odds on PredictIt show Donald Trump has about an 80% chance of winning the nomination, with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz trailing behind at 17% and 5%, respectively. (The probabilities don’t quite add up to 100% for technical reasons.) Given his recent string of victories, Mr Trump’s strength is obvious, but why is the market relatively downbeat about Mr Cruz’s prospects? After all, unlike Mr Rubio he has actually won a state.
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